Dispute settlement by peaceful means is essential to building harmonious interstate relations. However, Beijing’s dismissal of the tribunal’s ruling is in keeping with its broader opposition to settling disputes with its neighbors — from Japan and South Korea to India and tiny Bhutan — by means of international mediation, arbitration or adjudication.

Nationalist sentiments represent both an opportunity and a challenge for the Chinese government, which wants to harness public opinion but fears its power to destabilize the regime. Whatever actions the United States and its allies take in the wake of the ruling, a minimum of publicity and a clear legal rationale is likely the most effective course of action.

The Philippine government does not want the Tribunal ruling to escalate security tensions in the South China Sea, acknowledging the enormous enforcement challenge with China’s rejection of the ruling. President Duterte is now counting on China’s goodwill. The arbitral ruling should guide China on how to behave more responsibly in the South China Sea.

All eyes are on the Philippines and China to see how these two states will behave now that a milestone decision on the three-year landmark dispute case has been rendered. From the Philippines’ side, it is important to decouple national interests from great power rivalry or from abstract principles like freedom of navigation. The arbitration decision may not compel China to action in the immediate term, but will contribute to lingering suspicions about China’s real intentions in its near seas.

The Hague Tribunal this week issued a decision that will most likely become a tool in the hands of the defenders of the status quo. How events will develop will depend on Duterte’s disposition, China’s diplomatic sagacity, and America’s response. If the China and the Philippines are unable to meet somewhere in the middle, it is the “law” that China will reject.

After the South China Sea arbitration ruling, uncertainty and friction may increase in the region. However, the economic promise of China’s rise and the Asian century will only materialize with peace and stability in the region.

—— Opening Remarks at International Law Colloquium on Maritime Disputes Settlement (15 July 2016) Introduction I’m greatly honored to have the opportunity

The ruling at The Hague may well lead us nowhere. Indeed, it is possible that the outcome may lead us to a crisis of enormous consequence. Can we turn this crisis in to an opportunity?

China’s top envoy in Washington elaborates on why China rejects the arbitration on South China Sea, how China plans to deal with the disputes after the ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration, and challenges the U.S. to “make the right choice” in relations with China.

The author argues that China should work to bring the Code of Conduct it has been discussing with ASEAN to a conclusion and continue to engage concerned states in dialogue. He also cautions that Washington must be careful not to inadvertently contribute to the militarization of the region.