U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs – especially the ultra-high “reciprocal tariffs” that he says will be reintroduced on July 8 for any country that has not struck a trade deal with his administration – have sent countries around the world scrambling to respond, adapt, and limit the fallout. ASEAN’s ten members – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam – have been among the most proactive.

In the week of 25th May 2025, Kuala Lumpur played host to a landmark event: the inaugural ASEAN-GCC-China Summit. It brought together Southeast Asian nations, the Gulf states, and China - three pillars of the emerging multipolar order - in a signal moment of strategic realignment. While headlines may focus on trade, energy, and infrastructure cooperation, the deeper story lies in a quiet revolution in how the world’s fastest-growing economies trade, settle, and invest - increasingly without the U.S. dollar.

The tariffs will not spell the end of alliances between the United States and Japan or South Korea, but they are likely to promote a strategic awakening in both countries and accelerate the integration process in East Asia.

ASEAN and BRICS are both international cooperative organizations, much like the G7 - except both are led by non-Western aligned nations. The addition of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam to BRICS raises the question of whether these groups can harmonize their goals without disrupting ASEAN's long-standing geopolitical orientation.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest trade pact, integrates 15 diverse economies to revitalize globalization, enhance trade rules, and bolster ASEAN’s centrality in regional trade. Amid U.S.-China tensions, RCEP offers opportunities for supply chain shifts and industrial upgrades while positioning China to deepen ties with developing regions through initiatives like the Belt and Road.

America is holding ASEAN countries back from a central role in its Indo-Pacific Strategy, but their self-confidence is growing. It’s not lost on anyone that Southeast Asia’s strategic position has not changed in the minds of U.S. decision-makers. Meanwhile, China offers welcome alternatives.

ASEAN’s future seems bright, and both the U.S. and China want to court the region’s nations into partnerships. Neither side holds a clear advantage, though that may change after the U.S. election this year.

Indonesia is one of the world’s most populous nations, and is rising in regional and international influence. Taking charge as ASEAN chairman amid a contentious time among member states is Indonesia’s chance to prove its ability to lead Southeast Asia and the world in the coming decades.

Xi Jinping's absence from the G20 summit suggests a shift in China's foreign policy towards creating alternative international alliances. There are also questions about China's intentions and what the potential consequences will be if China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi doesn't address protocol and logistical issues for future international events.

If a report in the Washington Post is true, the United States is playing politics by blocking John Lee Ka-chiu’s attendance at an upcoming APEC meeting in San Francisco. This must not be allowed to become a spark that starts another prairie fire in China-U.S. relations.