The ongoing Second Thomas Shoal incident could trigger misjudgments and a wider conflict. Keeping the peace will require a comprehensive approach to crisis management, especially where foundational principles are involved.

America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy is not only at odds with the regional vision to which ASIAN is committed but it affects the region’s development environment. As a result, ASEAN will steer a middle course to protect its central role.

Amid rising tensions between the United States and China in Asian waters, ASEAN nations, led by Indonesia, are intensifying their efforts to manage and diffuse the military tensions. Initiatives such as the Multilateral Naval Exercise Komodo (MNEK) and joint naval drills aim to engage both superpowers and promote dialogue. ASEAN states are strengthening their defensive positions while pursuing diplomatic engagement to ensure regional stability.

Japan seeks to further develop its partnerships with ASEAN countries and neighboring states to reassess its place globally amidst tensions between the U.S. and China.

Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s head, visited South Korea and Japan recently on a proselyting mission to spread the concept of military deterrence. But China and others have adopted more benign security concept. The region cannot afford to repeat the mistake of replacing dialogue with a show of force.

Relations between China and the Philippines have a direct bearing on stability in the South China Sea and peace in the wider Asia-Pacific region. Like waves in the sea itself, the situation fluctuates. But sensible leaders and a clear outline for settling disputes can prevent a breakdown.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s visit to Beijing may help set the tone for cordial bilateral ties with China, but could also stir wariness on the part of the country’s longstanding treaty ally, the United States. The Philippines must carefully navigate its position to avoid being seen as favoring either side.

ASEAN toes a delicate balancing act between China and the United States, and the latest ASEAN Summit demonstrates the complexities involved in steering clear of unnecessary tensions.

Indonesia famously played host to Joe Biden and Xi Jinping’s first face-to-face meeting of Biden’s presidency; a milestone in the great power rivalry between East and West. Historically, Indonesia has also been the site of another major international summit - the Bandung Conference which produced a network of “non-aligned” states. Each of these events is a mirror of our modern times as Southeast Asia’s medium-sized powers seek to navigate a contentious climate between the U.S. and China’s competing influences.

China’s next move is the subject of much speculation and worry for observers and enemies. The current conditions of today’s geopolitical stage should lead China towards its Southeast Asian neighbors in what may be its next international outreach campaign.