The Indo-Pacific aims to contain China's influence but struggles with unclear membership and diverse objectives. By contrast, the economic region of Pacific Asia, centered on China, emphasizes interdependence, but grapples with political uncertainties due to concerns about overreliance on China. The member states of both have agency and will pursue their own interests, but China’s behavior will likely determine which grouping has the greater strategic salience.

America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy is not only at odds with the regional vision to which ASIAN is committed but it affects the region’s development environment. As a result, ASEAN will steer a middle course to protect its central role.

Dialogues in China show America’s orientation toward “on-demand cooperation,” which is most likely to bear fruit in the green sector and with climate change. It may prove to be a starting point for the recovery of the relationship.

India wants to maintain cordial relations with multiple entities on the international stage, while the United States seeks a tighter alignment. Despite U.S. inducements, India is not likely to abandon its fundamental diplomatic philosophy of strategic autonomy.

The Indian Ocean, as a maritime crossroads of international trade, is a key area of competition between China and the United States.

Success or failure is closely linked to China’s ability to influence its own neighborhood, as America’s real purpose is the creation of a NATO-style regional alliance. For the U.S., much depends on whether it can accommodate the concerns of countries that don’t want to take sides.

IPEF negotiations are underway and four joining statements were recently released at the first in-person IPEF ministerial meeting. But Washington’s motives and the direction they lead negotiations remains to be seen, as they seek to build allyship in the Pacific and increase competition with China.

Is the U.S. ready to meaningfully engage with the Asia-Pacific region? Their latest offering comes in the form of the IPEF, and the differences between the U.S.-led trade pact and competing ones led by Asian powers will show whether American leadership has brought enough to the table.

U.S. President Joe Biden formally launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework in June, but the initiative falls short of providing an actual trade agreement. In order for the IPEF to work long term, the Biden administration must include interlocking development initiatives that are multilateral and backed by public-private partnership agreements.

India and Pakistan share a deeply intertwined and embattled history. And now that India sees China entering the picture to back Pakistani development, the thought of two neighboring rivals growing closer has put India on notice.