In the near future, the supposed “multipolar” world has been deferred, giving way instead to “orbital bipolarity”—a system in which global politics and industry are pulled into competing gravitational fields centered on the United States and China. Multilateralism has become inert, and every other power now orbits these two anchors while maintaining the fiction of choice and autonomy.

Europe’s dissatisfaction, anxiety and dependence will continue to shape the next stage of transatlantic relations. The rift may not lead to a break. But it will likely lead to a relationship that becomes ever more transactional, more realist and ultimately more fragile.

By sacrificing Chinese interests to signal alignment with the United States, the European Union overestimates its own leverage and underestimates China’s resilience and strategic resolve, thereby complicating pragmatic China-EU cooperation and impeding coordination on global challenges.

In the tense relationship between the United States and China, Hong Kong emerges as a middle space — a vantage point from which to imagine a way forward. The city’s unique position offers a metaphorical middle ground for dialogue, emphasising the need for new frameworks to navigate today’s complex rivalries.

China’s grand strategy is defined by a deliberate balance between integration into the global economic system and resistance to its Western-led constraints. It employs strategic ambiguity and selective engagement to expand influence, preserve flexibility, and avoid confrontation that could jeopardize its modernization.

The military parade in Beijing on Sept. 3 and the SCO summit in Tianjin elicited a profound psychological response in the United States and other Western countries. Debates over China’s strategic ascent and the prospect of a continental alignment have intensified.

Today’s international order is shaped by “orbital bipolarity,” dominated by the United States and China, with secondary powers navigating their influence; Europe is limited in its role, China acts cautiously, Russia capitalizes on Western hesitation, and Ukraine remains trapped in the conflict.

Conventional thinking would assume the Trump administration’s haphazard approach to China will become an articulated stance at some point, but the U.S. president is anything but conventional.

The Alaska Summit signals a revival of major power coordination, with Europe determined not to forsake the peace dividends it has accrued over the decades. Seasoned by centuries of geopolitical maneuvering, European powers are poised to actively shape their own destinies rather than succumb to the will of others.

The legacy of Donald Trump may endure if only because he triggered a new global order through the law of unintended consequences. He has set in motion a major power shift in which China — aligning with India, Russia and key trade blocs — will become the global captain over the next 10 to 20 years.