Widespread lockdowns and border closures aimed at combating the COVID-19 pandemic have interrupted global supply chains and largely paralyzed the global economy. Yet, the real weakness of today’s global economy is not the vulnerability of its globalized production networks, but rather souring attitudes toward globalization – and toward China in particular.

Back in 2013, the Chinese government laid out a policy agenda that promised real reforms to an economy laden with debt and distorted by the influence of the country’s large state-owned enterprise (SOE) sector. But instead of seeing that agenda through, China chose to dodge the risks entailed by marketization, and has since reverted to what it knows best: state control over the economy and the semblance of stability that comes with it.

Globalization is going to continue, but some rules and practices may need to be adjusted. The world should be open to such adjustments but continue to oppose economic nationalism and trade protectionism.

Unlike the Cold War between the West and the USSR, a US-China cold war is unlikely, given the fact that China is heavily integrated in the global economy and that people-to-people exchange remains high.

China's Belt and Road Initiative is being tested by COVID-19, as several host countries have requested debt relief. How China proceeds will determine the overall success of the initiative.

A great deal of interest is focussed on the level of Chinese real GDP in 2020. The Chinese GDP in 2020 depends crucially on two developments—the speed of the economic recovery from the COVID-19 epidemic and the availability of additional economic stimulus.

China still lacks a high-level of openness and now faces increasing pressure from external rules. If it does not intensify its reforms, it may be encircled by those rules or even be excluded from the newly emerging international system.

When the U.S. Trump Administration’s recently attempted to slam the door on Huawei, China’s leading telecommunication and technology loaded company, he and his China advisors broke the heretofore gold standard in international collaboration; and that has been the world’s semiconductor industry.

Whether the world economy recovers or declines in the coming year will depend upon a number of complex interlocking factors. Unlike SARS, the COVID-19 pandemic endangers the security of the real economy and increases worries.

While the fast-changing nature of COVID-19 makes economic interventions difficult to predict, China's uneven economic recovery may serve as a roadmap for other countries overcoming the outbreak.