China has kick-started a phase of public-facing diplomacy overtures, encompassing Europe, the Middle East, and its own situation with Taiwan. The wave of meetings and visits shows a remarkable change in China’s reception from the international community, as well as where it might still improve its relations.

The United States is at a three-way crossroads. It must decide whether to defend Taiwan, abandon Taiwan or destroy Taiwan. Will the U.S. risk being dragged into a war as it continues to use Taiwan to contain China’s progress? The clock is ticking.

Success or failure is closely linked to China’s ability to influence its own neighborhood, as America’s real purpose is the creation of a NATO-style regional alliance. For the U.S., much depends on whether it can accommodate the concerns of countries that don’t want to take sides.

Chinese chipmakers have remained surprisingly resilient despite U.S. semiconductor export controls. By redirecting focus towards legacy chip production, stockpiling restricted foreign chips, government support, and open-source RISC-V chip design architecture, China’s semiconductor industry may survive Washington’s export control campaign.

Washington’s repeated provocations — both military and political — have made any recovery of stable relations with China difficult. If the United States fails to comprehend the serious nature of the Taiwan question, war will likely result.

AUKUS has laid out a plan for Australia to acquire its own SSN fleet. While the buildup of subs will take several years, submarine basing access and easing of constraints on the transfer of submarine parts and technologies to allies and partners mean that the program’s impact can be felt sooner in the Indo-Pacific, including on the Taiwan Straits hotspot.

Any easing of China-U.S. relations will have twists and turns, and material improvement is unlikely to come soon. But both sides can learn from America’s Cold War standoff with the USSR, when mechanisms were built that avoided war. That process can be followed again.

Interstate political relations are changing the dynamics of the international system. China’s relationship with Russia has become a tool for balancing the shifting pres-sures. But no country can predict the consequences of war. Staying out of it may be the best way to maximize gains.

Taiwan’s DPP, the pro-independence ruling party, has been fighting to retain relationships in the fallout of losing Honduras’ recognition to Beijing. Meanwhile, opposition leaders have breached a historic cross-strait divide with a visit to mainland China, all of this happening in the run up to Taiwan’s presidential elections next year.

China has maintained a minimal presence in the Middle East over the last few decades, but Beijing’s mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia demonstrates that Beijing is staking out a new, positive role in the region.