Cambodia’s close relationship with China has become a model for what it can look like when a nation stays in Beijing’s good graces. Now, its Prime Minister is ascending to lead ASEAN in 2022, setting the stage for a potentially dramatic turn of events in the region, whose members diverge on their feelings towards China’s influence.

Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen will assume leadership of ASEAN this year, and bring with him a positive attitude towards China and a recent history of disengagement with the West. Observers expect that the regional organization’s agenda will turn away from topics that will directly challenge China’s influence over Southeast Asia.

The RCEP is the largest free trade agreement in global history - but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be smooth sailing for China and its partners in Southeast Asia.

ASEAN is the crossroads of the Pacific, and one of the world’s most strategically valuable trade routes. Their high volume of trade with both the U.S. and China put them at the intersection of something else - the escalating struggle between the two superpowers for global supremacy.

The United States has been unsuccessful in its attempts to rally Southeast Asia against China. In recent months, it has mounted a transparent effort to curry favor in the region. But nobody wants to choose between major trading powers. They’d rather keep their options open.

The idea that ASEAN countries rely on the U.S. for security and on China for economy may be overstated. What is true is that they benefit from cooperation with China under the principle of mutual benefit and reciprocity, and they don’t want to rock the boat.

China recently initiated a wave of diplomatic courtship of ASEAN nations, as both sides work to navigate the reality of China’s resurgent gravity in the Pacfic region.

Southeast Asia’s coalition of small-to-medium sized nations have hosted superpower conflicts, yet they are overshadowed by larger regional powers on the global stage time and time again. American leadership will struggle to find welcoming allies there without a drastic upgrade in its dealings with ASEAN member nations.

With the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) expected to take effect next year, China steps up building its first free trade port in Hainan. It shows how Beijing is preparing to capitalize and contribute to the success of the world’s largest free trade agreement (FTA).

The integrated bloc means an improved strategic environment to China’s south. Among other things, war has been eliminated and two-way economic ties have become closer. As a result, ASEAN has become China’s largest trading partner, eclipsing the European Union.