The most recent direct discussion between U.S. President Joseph Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping was dominated by the Taiwan issue—which has become increasingly volatile and has returned to a central point of tension in the relationship. The telephone conversation allowed each president to restate their respective positions. Hopefully such an exchange will contribute to restraint, non-provocations, and stability between Beijing and Washington (although Taipei has its own agency and can cause instability).

The recent conversation offered an opportunity to manage bilateral relations from a strategic height. But because of domestic political strife in the U.S, there will likely be no letup in attempts to amplify “China threat” rhetoric.

Will the G20 foreign ministers meeting bring China-U.S. ties back on track? Only with continuous improvements in the overall bilateral atmosphere can any consensus on cooperation — and the stability of the world — be effectively guaranteed.

Restore normal diplomatic exchanges, avoid war and strengthen economic ties — these are at the top of the list. It’s clear that trade is increasing, not decreasing, and we should continue developing scientific and technological exchanges. While competition is inevitable, war is not.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi met on July 9 at a G-20 Foreign Ministers Meeting in Bali, Indonesia. They held lengthy discussions—but all subsequent indications suggest that no substantive progress was made on each sides’ concerns. Nonetheless, some consolation can be taken that such an exchange occurred at all.

Competition with the United States has become a catalyst for change in the way China deals with countries in its own neighborhood. A sophisticated approach in Asia will be required as China balances all its interactions.

At the recent meeting in Luxembourg between China and the United States, the PRC emphasized two bedrock interests — Taiwan and the broader Asia-Pacific. America has been shifting its approach on both fronts. If it does not dial back its confrontational attitude, prosperity and peace in the region will not be attained.

The crisis in Ukraine quickly led China-observers to draw comparisons to the similar provocations that exist in the Taiwan Strait regarding Taiwanese sovereignty and Beijing’s desire to take control of the island. The way Russia’s offensive is unfolding can lead to sobering takeaways for all sides party to Taiwan and China’s standoff.

The demonization of China that began during the Trump presidency has persisted. Bilateral relations are morphing from a competition over interests to a struggle over values and identity. The near future looks bleak, but there’s hope further down the road.

Washington might believe that Russia’s poor performance in Ukraine will make China think twice about using force, or that China will be constrained by the CPC’s 20th National Congress. But this is a grave misunderstanding.