The U.S.-Israel strike on Iran lacks a clear legal basis or credible justification and represents a high-risk gamble by the Trump administration. Despite early military success, the operation faces uncertain prospects, including limited chances of regime change and the risk of prolonged conflict.

The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli strikes has created leadership uncertainty in Tehran, weakened Iran’s regional network of allies, and accelerated shifts in Middle Eastern power dynamics. For China, the conflict threatens energy supplies and Belt and Road investments while potentially expanding Beijing’s diplomatic role if it maintains neutrality and engagement with all sides.

Critics of the attack on Iran by the United States and Israel point out that US President Donald Trump has no plan for what comes next. And they are not wrong: when Trump boasts that he can resolve wars in a single day, he merely exposes the limits of his attention span. But the real problem is not the shortness of Trump’s time horizon; it’s the narrowness of his threat perception.

The U.S. kidnapping of President Maduro represents one of the worst violations of international law by a major power in decades. It also reflects the role of Venezuela as a battleground of U.S. and Chinese interests.

The United States has complained bitterly about the recent OPEC announcement of a cut in oil production, which was seen as providing indirect aid to Russia and as a slap in the face to U.S. President Joe Biden. But U.S. complaints have been met with a sharp backlash from Saudi Arabia as it looks eastward.

Capping the price of Russian oil will mean that unfettered trade in accordance with the law of supply and demand will be undermined. Free markets will be distorted when the “invisible hand” is replaced by anti-market government intervention.

Russia’s deep integration in the global energy market is the result of a long and complex interaction of many actors in the value chain. Therefore, so-called moral clarity will require precise, case-by-case analysis of real-world facts. The outcome remains to be seen.

American policy in the Middle East has Saudi Arabia thinking about selling oil to China in Chinese yuan rather than U.S. dollars. The shift would weaken the dollar’s dominant position in the global oil market.

A permanent reduction in global oil and gas output may come sooner than expected. Fossil energy companies are looking ahead with caution. Instead of investing their profits in exploration or production, they are turning to capital markets.

While reductions will end price wars, major problems remain unresolved on the demand side. Consumption has fallen because of the coronavirus pandemic, and little short of a vaccine will help.