The EU and U.S. have agreed to a tactical cease-fire, not a strategic settlement. As long as Europe pursues strategic autonomy and Washington replaces rules-based multilateralism with transactional deals, fresh disputes are inevitable.

The intent of the United States was to coerce China into making concessions. But this didn’t work. China was only inspired to reach out to other trading partners and become more independent through home-grown technological development.

If the United States can adapt flexibly and prioritize consensus with its trading partners, it may solidify its economic dominance. Otherwise, persistent high tariffs risk deepening global trade fragmentation and will challenge America’s long-term influence.

The most recent trade talks between the United States and China in Geneva and London provided little more than temporary relief in the conflict between the world’s two largest economies. Despite US President Donald Trump’s efforts to tout the stopgap measures as a “deal” that benefits America, China reads the scoreboard differently – and believes it is winning. From its vantage point, it has weathered the storm and emerged more confident, more self-reliant, and more convinced that its long game is paying off.

There is an inherent flaw in US President Donald Trump’s trade policy. While it is all but impossible to know where Trump will settle on most issues – from taxes to immigration – two key objectives of his trade strategy are now coming into focus: setting a global minimum tariff, and imposing a special penalty on China. The flaw lies in the combination.

America’s reindustrialization process relies heavily on China’s industrial system support. In an increasingly competitive global market, China’s full-fledged industrial system emerges as the most cost-effective and competitive option.

After reaching a consensus in their tariff negotiations in Geneva, China and the United States have significantly reduced their duties on each other. This has awakened countries around the world and inspired them to launch a new wave of regional integration.

China’s new export licensing system strengthens its control over key rare earth elements, deepening supply chain risks. Although new processing facilities are emerging abroad, they won’t soon offset China’s dominance, prolonging global uncertainty.

Despite de-escalation in Geneva, trillions of dollars may have been lost in the unwarranted trade wars.

A trade deal between China and the United States is nowhere in sight. The mountain of issues could take a long time and enormous effort to resolve. It’s certainly not going to happen in three or four weeks, as Trump has suggested. More likely, it will be months, if not years.