As US President Joe Biden’s administration implements its strategy of great power competition with China, analysts seek historical metaphors to explain the deepening rivalry. But while many invoke the onset of the Cold War, a more worrisome historical metaphor is the start of World War I. In 1914, all the great powers expected a short third Balkan War. Instead, as the British historian Christopher Clark has shown, they sleepwalked into a conflagration that lasted four years, destroyed four empires, and killed millions.

One positive outcome is that the two presidents, Xi Jinping and Joe Biden, will hold a videoconference before the end of the year. But there have been a number of other good signs elsewhere as well. Bilateral ties have not continued deteriorating but are showing signs of a gradual thaw.

2021 has shown how the EU will seek to maintain a competitive and cooperative relationship with China amidst tensions between the U.S. and China.

In his speech at the United Nations on Sept. 21, China’s president placed new emphasis on outreach to the world in the fight against COVID-19, as well as major new commitments to reducing coal consumption globally. “The world is big enough to accommodate the common development and progress of all countries,” he said.

Supporting expansion is a risky decision at time when major-power politics are in a state of “cold peace.” But no matter what the outcomes are, China needs to actively pursue its own interests in the SCO space. Guaranteeing stable expectations for its security interests is most important.

How should China deal with Europe? The answer is becoming increasingly complex. Changes in approach are necessitated by Europe’s effort to redefine its role as a mere international trade actor. It seeks to become a major geopolitical power in its own right, independent of the United States.

Speeches by Xi Jinping and Joe Biden laid out their understanding of the international political order from the perspective of their own national history. Developed nations in the West may identify with the U.S. vision, while developing nations may find the Chinese vision more attractive.

While the release of Meng Wanzhou to China and Michael Spavor and Michael Korvig to Canada gives cause to celebrate, the underlying reasons that led to their detainments must be analyzed.

As the United States redistributes resources in response to complex dynamics with regard to China, its approach is likely to be an evolutionary, full-spectrum endeavor that goes beyond the military alone. It’s a posture that will be difficult to maintain and one that could even create chaos.

“There is only one system in the world, and that is the international system with the United Nations at its core,” President Xi Jinping said. “There is only one order, and that is the international order based on international law.”