By Nicu Popescu and Fredrik Wesslau PARIS—For decades, much of Europe viewed military engagement through the lens of NATO or the European Union, since t

The Trump administration’s war against Iran is portrayed as a reckless and ill-timed failure that caused massive humanitarian damage, destabilized the region, and disrupted global trade while failing to achieve regime change. China is depicted as a cautious but increasingly credible actor calling for stability and open trade, highlighting shifting global dynamics as the conflict leaves a volatile crisis marked by a fragile ceasefire, blocked oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and a high risk of renewed conflict.

Donald Trump’s fixation on Cuba is driven by a combination of strategic and political considerations: a “Western Hemisphere first” approach, tactics to advance the Trump Doctrine and the practical aim of replicating the Venezuelan model to bolster the U.S. president’s midterm election prospects.

After the 2024 presidential election in the United States, a rising political right wing in Silicon Valley formed a “tech-political complex” with the Trump administration. Centered on tech acceleration and tech nationalism, it is pushing for military-civil integration, technological blockades against China and deregulation of the technology sector.

For countries dependent on imported oil, America’s war with Iran and its disruptions on global oil supplies have made China’s renewable energy strategy more attractive. While the Trump administration is doubling down on global oil dominance, China has an opportunity to strengthen its position as the renewable powerhouse while managing concerns of over dependence on Chinese renewable technologies and supply chains.

Nuclear weapons made wars of conquest between great powers unthinkable. After 1945, nuclear powers could still confront one another, but only indirectly, through proxy conflicts and peripheral crises. However bloody, these conflicts were not expected to approach the violence of the 20th century’s two world wars.

Presidents Xi and Trump should address the issue of nuclear weapons testing along with nuclear arms control to enhance strategic stability between China and the United States.

The U.S.-Iran conflict is increasing instability and straining U.S. resources while undermining Washington’s global credibility and leadership. At the same time, China is capitalizing on the situation by positioning itself as a neutral, stabilizing force and expanding its diplomatic influence at the United States’ expense.

The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has brought many lessons, foremost among them the shattering of the myth of unchallenged U.S. global might. More than a month into the U.S.-Israeli aggression, neither could the war change the regime in Iran – one of the illusions upon which U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had waged the war – nor did Tehran concede to U.S. terms. Furthermore, on 2 March, Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which around one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies pass. This energy lifeline remained blocked despite Trump’s repeated ultimatums and desperate calls to allies and partners to send forces to reopen it. This resistance was particularly notable as Iran has been under crippling sanctions for decades.

Canada and the five Nordic countries have vowed to seek closer “middle power” cooperation, a strategic effort to preserve national sovereignty. The move exposes a rift in the U.S.-led alliance system, which faces multiple uncertainties, including internal coordination challenges and U.S. pressure.