In small but steady degrees, the United States is undercutting its stated commitment to “one China” by subtly modifying its words. The meanings it has added in diplomatic discourse do not promote confidence that it will continue to honor the agreements it has made. On the contrary, U.S. actions belie those agreements.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which broke out in February 2022, marked the latest episode of the use of warfare as a tool to accelerate change in the world order. But two other events disturbed Asia and the Middle East: U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022 and the Israel-Hamas conflict, which broke out in October 2023. People began to worry about potential interplay across three war zones. Such a prospect has become more prominent in recent months, and may be worthy of note by historians.

Francesca Giovannini is executive director of the Project on Managing the Atom (MTA) at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science & Internati

The U.S. government recently imposed sanctions on Chinese companies allegedly supporting Pakistan's ballistic missile capabilities, reflecting an extension of the ongoing U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry. While these measures may jeopardize Pakistan's broader defense initiatives, they could also indirectly push the country closer towards China.

Such a conflict would not align with American interests, as there would be no assurance of success and it would be ethically unjustified. War between Israel and Iran could spiral into an uncontrollable and devastating Armageddon in the Middle East.

The longer the war drags on, the more variables there will be. Bearing this in mind, Volodymyr Zelenskyy may modify his tough stance against giving up land and seek more pragmatic ways to end the war, such as a truce conditional on NATO or European Union membership.

The withdrawal of the Philippine coast guard cutter BRP Teresa Magbanua from Sabina Shoal highlights rising tensions in the South China Sea, where China and the Philippines assert conflicting territorial claims. While it opens the door for potential diplomacy, the incident also underscores the Philippines' growing alignment with the U.S. amid concerns of becoming collateral damage in broader geopolitical rivalries.

China’s efforts to mediate between various Palestinian groups is a first step toward bridging the divide between Palestine and Israel. The U.S. must also take ownership of its responsibility and similarly employ its significant influence over Israel.

The institutionalized quadrilateral dialogue is now a leading alliance network of the U.S., alongside its bilateral alliances in the Asia Pacific. But there are differences within the Quad that are larger with regard to global hot spots such as the Ukraine crisis and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

For the Ukrainian president to consummate his victory plan he must either wait for or create favorable external conditions. The plan is closely intertwined with the evolving dynamics of relations between China, the United States and Russia.