As U.S. policy has grown increasingly aggressive, China’s posture has shifted, with long-term effects.

It’s only a matter of time before the United States loses its predominant position as the controller of international rhetoric and is supplanted by China as allies and partners lose confidence.

Developments in the realms of outer space and energy/environment now present us the opportunity for three of the world’s great powers – China, Russia and the United States – to increase significantly international cooperation in the long run for two of the four global public commons: space and energy/environment. However, such improvements will not happen unless leaders in Washington, Beijing, and Moscow rethink historical notions of competition and conflict among them.

Economic cooperation and trade frictions will probably simultaneously increase as the new American government’s “buy American and hire American” focus as it seeks greater economic benefits with its trading partners. But there are many areas where the interests of China and the US converge, which the leaders of both countries clearly appreciate.

While there are some variables in Trump diplomacy, variables do not necessarily equal uncertainties. Many of the forces affecting US diplomacy and global interactions are constant and predictable.

Despite superficial appearances and some genuine outreach between Trump and Putin, the differences between these rival countries are too complex, too deep and too historic to quickly wash away, even if such a move was in American interests.

Major powers need to work together to push globalization forward in the right direction, with more equitable benefits for people in every country. Any action to gain geopolitical advantage at the expense of another major power will not only bring risks to global security but damage prospects for world economic growth.

It is becoming increasingly clear that over the course of the next four years, the Trump Administration is going to conduct an all-out campaign to undermine the Great-Power norms that have so far enabled peace between the U.S. and China. The result is likely to be not just instability, but a journey down the road to war.

Conflict often results during power transitions. The U.S. should learn from Great Britain’s policy toward the rabidly nationalistic rising giant on the North American continent. After fighting two wars with its one-time colonists, Britain wisely chose peace.