U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs – especially the ultra-high “reciprocal tariffs” that he says will be reintroduced on July 8 for any country that has not struck a trade deal with his administration – have sent countries around the world scrambling to respond, adapt, and limit the fallout. ASEAN’s ten members – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam – have been among the most proactive.

After reaching a consensus in their tariff negotiations in Geneva, China and the United States have significantly reduced their duties on each other. This has awakened countries around the world and inspired them to launch a new wave of regional integration.

In the week of 25th May 2025, Kuala Lumpur played host to a landmark event: the inaugural ASEAN-GCC-China Summit. It brought together Southeast Asian nations, the Gulf states, and China - three pillars of the emerging multipolar order - in a signal moment of strategic realignment. While headlines may focus on trade, energy, and infrastructure cooperation, the deeper story lies in a quiet revolution in how the world’s fastest-growing economies trade, settle, and invest - increasingly without the U.S. dollar.

The Trump administration's clash with Ukraine has raised doubts about America's strategic reliability, prompting concerns among European and Asian allies about a potential shift in global order under a second Trump presidency.

Peter Hegseth’s inability to name an ASEAN country underscores the Trump administration’s broader indifference to Southeast Asia, favoring trade protectionism, military burden-shifting, and transactional diplomacy over sustained regional engagement.

The Asia-Pacific region began to exhibit signs of easing major geopolitical tensions in late 2024, but has started to heat up again following President Trump’s return to power in the White House. During the ‘easing’ period, although low-level disputes persisted in the vast region, in the South China Sea, and in cross-strait relations, the risk of a conflict involving regional heavyweights was not imminent.

America is holding ASEAN countries back from a central role in its Indo-Pacific Strategy, but their self-confidence is growing. It’s not lost on anyone that Southeast Asia’s strategic position has not changed in the minds of U.S. decision-makers. Meanwhile, China offers welcome alternatives.

ASEAN’s future seems bright, and both the U.S. and China want to court the region’s nations into partnerships. Neither side holds a clear advantage, though that may change after the U.S. election this year.

Southeast Asia is primed for major growth across multiple fronts in the near future - and it might be the perfect staging ground for U.S.-China cooperation, if the cross-Pacific powers are willing to set aside their differences.

Indonesia is one of the world’s most populous nations, and is rising in regional and international influence. Taking charge as ASEAN chairman amid a contentious time among member states is Indonesia’s chance to prove its ability to lead Southeast Asia and the world in the coming decades.