The Phillipines geographic location has long made it a close trading partner to China, but a colonial history with the U.S. has left strong bonds with its century-old ally to this day. Now, as China and the U.S. talk themselves into more hostile territory, how the Philippines will navigate two of its most consequential relationships will be crucial to surviving any sort of escalation.

An anti-development drive by the United States aims to undercut China in the Solomon Islands and elsewhere. Washington portrays China as a bad actor, sows discord and sets up exclusive trading blocs in a geopolitical tsunami designed to maintain U.S. dominance.

Three primary U.S. goals have their limitations. While it currently enjoys an internal bipartisan consensus on China, diplomatic and security problems, loopholes and contradictions exist for many countries in the region. The U.S. seeks to adjust the system to its advantage.

Recently Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi revealed China’s vision during the annual UN General Assembly. His positive words come at a time filled with pessimism around the globe, with the West attempting to damage China’s standing.

The U.S. strategic community’s assessment of America’s China policy can make a major difference in bilateral relations. Crises have a double edge: They provide challenges but also opportunities. Whether or not U.S. leaders will listen to the experts remains an open question.

The Russo-Ukraine conflict has raged on and looks to continue into the near future, straining relations in Europe. The ripple effects of military conflict involving a pronounced foe of the United States has created an even more tense climate on a global stage that already sees U.S.-China relations declining at an alarming rate.

As a former U.S. colonial subject, the Philippines has retained close cultural and official ties to Washington. The new Philippine president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., has shown that he intends to deviate from his predecessor’s distancing from the United States by rebuilding relations with the West while simultaneously drawing closer to Asian nations - including China.

China and Japan have deepened their economic interdependence, but they have a long way to go in building political trust, especially in the security realm. The two countries should get beyond the old concept that starts with military deterrence. It is no longer productive.

Major-country relations are changing dramatically. Chinese academics and political leaders should conduct an in-depth analysis of what China faces. The United States has already started a new Cold War in regional and global industrial chains.

Washington’s initiatives are being pitched as an “alternative to China,” as they divide developing countries and solidify U.S. control. The IPEF may compete with ASEAN, raising questions about the bloc’s centrality.