While the United States and its Western allies might wish that China would adopt their position and help to mediate an end to the crisis, China has crafted a stance that conforms to its own interests. It simply doesn’ t have the influence other countries may imagine.

Rodrigo Duterte led the Philippines in the last six years with his own brand of populist, oft-criticized leadership. While his successor may not inherit his bombastic attitude, they will have to take over relations with an ever-powerful China and a long festering maritime row.

The continuing attacks on Ukraine should be a point where global leaders should be able to align on creating a solution - but outside of a vacuum, tense relations and posturing are getting in the way.

As it grows stronger, South Korea naturally wants to play a bigger role in world affairs. But drawing close to the U.S. in all fields to elevate its importance will ultimately constrain its diplomatic space and flexibility.

The U.S. is currently attempting to lump China with Russia, but the conflict in Ukraine is not likely to change America’s competitive strategy toward China in the long run. The U.S. will continue to focus on the Indo-Pacific region.

The Russia-Ukraine War is driving global change in both the economic and security domains. China and the United States will face a different world than existed before the Russian military operation that began on February 24.

Russia’s deep integration in the global energy market is the result of a long and complex interaction of many actors in the value chain. Therefore, so-called moral clarity will require precise, case-by-case analysis of real-world facts. The outcome remains to be seen.

The international credibility of the United States has been thrown into question. Failure to deliver on promises and various signs of weakness will diminish trust in the U.S. by its allies, thus dampening its appeal and leadership.

As the global community turns against an increasingly isolated Russia, China’s silence on the topic becomes more easily interpreted as support for Putin’s war. The untenable stance will be sure to drive more friction between the West and China and puts China’s foreign interests in further jeopardy.

China has remained relatively quiet on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, to the annoyance of the West. There may be several explanations for Beijing’s aloofness.