Will the G20 foreign ministers meeting bring China-U.S. ties back on track? Only with continuous improvements in the overall bilateral atmosphere can any consensus on cooperation — and the stability of the world — be effectively guaranteed.

Is the U.S. ready to meaningfully engage with the Asia-Pacific region? Their latest offering comes in the form of the IPEF, and the differences between the U.S.-led trade pact and competing ones led by Asian powers will show whether American leadership has brought enough to the table.

The IPEF - a U.S.-initiated trade and development partnership - is poised to bring in enthusiastic participation from several nations in the Asia-Pacific region. Notably, Southeast Asian states are well represented among members, giving the U.S. considerable influence right in China’s backyard.

Six factors suggest that the IPEF will not succeed: meager benefits for developing economies, new and unpopular commitments, disproportionate benefits for the U.S., vague negotiating plans, uncertainty of the framework’s survival under a new American administration and skepticism by U.S. allies.

The Biden administration is prioritizing its foreign policy strategy in Asia by extensive outreach and alliances in the region. Strategic partnerships with other countries, particularly in the Indo-Pacific , are crucial for the U.S. to keep up with China’s growth in the region.

U.S. President Joe Biden formally launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework in June, but the initiative falls short of providing an actual trade agreement. In order for the IPEF to work long term, the Biden administration must include interlocking development initiatives that are multilateral and backed by public-private partnership agreements.

The IPEF attempts to placate those who oppose free trade in the Indo-Pacific region while also constraining China. But China is the biggest trading partner for most IPEF countries, so the attempt to encircle China on trade is tantamount to encircling its own members.

A nation that seeks to maximize its own interests through containment, confrontation, closure, exclusivity or even the use of force runs against the will of the world, and Blinken failed to break that old mold. His words remain out of step with the direction of mankind.

Whether or not bilateral relations will enter a new era depends, in particular, on what the U.S. can offer. Peace and development is ASEAN’s main concern. A strategy designed to force members to side with the U.S. or China will not be welcomed.

The United States does not rule out cooperation with China on particular issues, but the prominence of cooperation in principle has dropped significantly. Indications are that areas of possible cooperation are narrowing and the difficulty is increasing.