Arbitrary policies introduced by the U.S. president have accelerated a shift of the international order and introduced new dynamics to relations between major powers. Most countries are reluctant to follow Trump’s lead because they have little to gain by doing so. Several are quietly thinking about ways to turn his disruptions into opportunity.

Since his return to the White House, Donald Trump has attempted to reduce the U.S. focus on Europe in order to shift resources to the Indo-Pacific. But geopolitical rivalry can neither resolve America’s own problems nor the challenges facing the world.

The Trump administration will continue to sway as it seeks new equilibrium amid stress-relieving turbulence. Historical patterns can be seen, but so can evolving realities. No one knows if America will find another escape route.

The early decades of the 21st Century have already seen a rapid shifting of global power, and today one could view the world’s relationships flowing through a four-way struggle for balance and dominance between the U.S., China, the EU, and Russia.

The effect on history of the last one — the Trump populist revolution — remains to be seen. What is certain, however, is that the Trump phenomenon, its support base and the logic of reform it represents, will not simply vanish.

The second Trump administration’s China policies have thus far been very opaque and difficult to discern. However, in recent weeks a variety of indicators are beginning to make them clearer—and one dominant theme emerges: China will be viewed as America’s principal adversary.

Trump’s actions in dealing with Russia and Ukraine and conflict in Gaza have been disruptive and unpredictable. With more holistic foreign policy statements still in the works, only speculation can tell us where Trump might head regarding the Indo-Pacific.

The more things change, the more they seem to stay the same.

The Trump administration's clash with Ukraine has raised doubts about America's strategic reliability, prompting concerns among European and Asian allies about a potential shift in global order under a second Trump presidency.

Trump’s Oval Office ambush of Ukrainian President Zelensky highlights the unpredictability and volatility of U.S. diplomacy under his second term—an unsettling prospect for China as it prepares for a potential Trump-Xi summit. With Trump emboldened and increasingly unpredictable, China may face new challenges in navigating an engagement with a leader who thrives on disruption.