When a small state assumes the protection of a bigger ally under any circumstance, conflicts erupt. Will the U.S. and China learn from history?

Global governance is increasingly constrained by three interconnected traps: a shrinking supply of international public goods as U.S. global leadership recedes, a growing crisis of public trust in governments and institutions, and the rising power of AI firms that outpaces effective regulation. Together, these trends weaken the ability of states and international institutions to address major transnational challenges, from security and public health to climate change and artificial intelligence.

As international conflicts intensify amid a weakening global order, China has expanded its mediatory diplomacy. This diplomacy is comprehensive and structured, encompassing three reinforcing components: peace-brokering roles at different levels, a conceptual framework in the form of the Global Security Initiative (GSI), and an institutional foundation in the form of the International Organization for Mediation (IOMed). Together, these components offer a robust and systematic framework for addressing varied international conflicts.

As more countries seek to break free from external constraints and assert greater control over their own development and security agenda, the global wave of strategic autonomy is increasingly challenging the post-Cold War order and reshaping the international system.

Iran is increasingly reorienting its foreign policy and economic strategy toward China and Eurasia, using expanded overland transport and energy links through Central and South Asia to reduce its vulnerability to sanctions and maritime disruption. This shift aligns with Beijing’s push for deeper trans-Eurasian connectivity and positions Iran as a more important partner in China's efforts to integrate the Eurasian continent through infrastructure, trade, and energy networks.

On 17th February, Tarique Rahman was sworn in as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, marking a paradigm shift in the country’s politics after his return from a 17-year exile. Notwithstanding the optimism surrounding his party’s (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) confidence to deliver on the domestic front, Bangladesh is all set to emerge as a new arena of Sino-US competition.

Beijing has become one of the world's essential diplomatic capitals, with countries across geopolitical divides increasingly relying on engagement with China to advance economic, political, and security objectives. Its influence stems from China's central role in global trade, finance, technology, and diplomacy, making Beijing a key hub for negotiation, coordination, and strategic engagement in the multipolar era.

Two and a half years of war have depleted much of the moral capital Israel accumulated over the past half-century. Meanwhile, the lobbying machinery in America has a resilience that no fleeting surge of public emotion is likely to overturn.

The 2026 midterm elections in the United States are set for early November. The results will serve as a test of the Trump 2.0 administration and are also are likely to have a profound impact on the stability of China-U.S. relations.

The United States, along with the emerging Global South and declining Western powers represented by the European Union and Canada, are all seeking to steer the future international order toward pathways they can more effectively shape and control.