The early decades of the 21st Century have already seen a rapid shifting of global power, and today one could view the world’s relationships flowing through a four-way struggle for balance and dominance between the U.S., China, the EU, and Russia.

The effect on history of the last one — the Trump populist revolution — remains to be seen. What is certain, however, is that the Trump phenomenon, its support base and the logic of reform it represents, will not simply vanish.

The tariffs will not spell the end of alliances between the United States and Japan or South Korea, but they are likely to promote a strategic awakening in both countries and accelerate the integration process in East Asia.

The Indo-Pacific Strategy of Trump 2.0 remains unclear, although consensus has been reached on major power competition. If a new Indo-Pacific Strategy now emerges to build U.S. advantages against China, it will be designed to serve core MAGA goals.

The official visit of Mohammed Yunus to China in late March proved fruitful, but there remain many untapped opportunities for cooperation between the countries of South Asian and China. As China brings technological advantages and investment opportunities, South Asia will develop faster and better.

The second Trump administration’s China policies have thus far been very opaque and difficult to discern. However, in recent weeks a variety of indicators are beginning to make them clearer—and one dominant theme emerges: China will be viewed as America’s principal adversary.

Trump’s second term could pave the way for extended rule by undermining institutions and consolidating power, following the pattern of historical self-coups. This would not only threaten U.S. democracy but also disrupt global stability, forcing nations like China to rethink their long-term strategies.

The deep interactions between Chinese and American researchers and their intertwined scientific networks highlight the importance of long-term cooperation. Any major disruptions could have a profound impact on the global research ecosystem.

With the Global South rising, Europe’s renewed emphasis on strategic independence from the United States could partially offset its relative decline in hard power and accelerate global multi-polarity.

Trump’s second-term foreign policy asserts U.S. hegemony in the Western Hemisphere while exploring a great power system based on spheres of influence. Its success hinges on defining these spheres—especially between the U.S. and China—without destabilizing East Asia.