In times of geopolitical uncertainty, regional unity is the surest path forward. In July, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) released its updated outlook for the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, plus China, Japan, and South Korea. AMRO revised down its growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively, and highlighted the urgent need for greater regional integration.

In his meetings with US President Donald Trump in Washington this week, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., is navigating a challenging new reality: a place under America’s security umbrella no longer comes with a discount at the customs window. When it comes to trade, Trump throws allies and adversaries into the same basket. But Marcos thinks he can negotiate an agreement that preserves and even strengthens the US-Philippines trade relationship.

Second round of Trump-Putin engagement incorporates elements of strategic deterrence but has failed to resolve the conflict. That’s because the war reflects a deeper struggle over institutions, grand strategy and competing value systems.

US Vice President J.D. Vance recently tried to cast President Donald Trump’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure as a wildly successful example of the “Trump Doctrine.” According to Vance, the doctrine is simple: you identify a problem that threatens US interests, which “you try to aggressively diplomatically solve.” If diplomacy fails, “you use overwhelming military power to solve it and then you get the hell out of there before it ever becomes a protracted conflict.”

Donald Trump prefers to treat the waters as a bargaining chip, so the United States may reduce high-profile provocations — such as close-in reconnaissance — and instead increase its “gray” tactics and low-intensity military exercises.

China-U.S. competition is fueled by overall national strength. In addition to growing its own hard and soft power, it should pay attention to the evolving politics in the United States, as well as the changes in attitude by U.S. allies, and work to create a united front around the world.

As Philippine President Marcos Jr. embarks on a crucial trip to Washington, uncertainties triggered by U.S. tariffs are unsettling global markets and the trade war with China is squeezing third countries, including many in ASEAN. Lowering tariffs, pursuing investment pledges, and boosting cooperation in sectors such as shipbuilding, semiconductors, and critical minerals are key to rebutting claims that the relation is more arms than butter.

A new global stage is clearly being set as Western powers begin to react to China’s rivalling interests, and the U.K. may be positioning itself as a middle ground for the 21st Century.

The Global South has gone from a nebulous new buzzword to a true factor in determining the world’s relationships. Though far from a monolithic bloc, Global South states share some overlap in vision that will shape the near future in key areas.

Amid the uncertainty of U.S. domestic affairs and the evolving international order, the transatlantic relationship — despite its apparent stability — is likely to experience undercurrents of discontent in the years ahead.