The second Trump administration’s China policies have thus far been very opaque and difficult to discern. However, in recent weeks a variety of indicators are beginning to make them clearer—and one dominant theme emerges: China will be viewed as America’s principal adversary.

Trump’s second term could pave the way for extended rule by undermining institutions and consolidating power, following the pattern of historical self-coups. This would not only threaten U.S. democracy but also disrupt global stability, forcing nations like China to rethink their long-term strategies.

The deep interactions between Chinese and American researchers and their intertwined scientific networks highlight the importance of long-term cooperation. Any major disruptions could have a profound impact on the global research ecosystem.

With the Global South rising, Europe’s renewed emphasis on strategic independence from the United States could partially offset its relative decline in hard power and accelerate global multi-polarity.

Trump’s second-term foreign policy asserts U.S. hegemony in the Western Hemisphere while exploring a great power system based on spheres of influence. Its success hinges on defining these spheres—especially between the U.S. and China—without destabilizing East Asia.

Trump’s actions in dealing with Russia and Ukraine and conflict in Gaza have been disruptive and unpredictable. With more holistic foreign policy statements still in the works, only speculation can tell us where Trump might head regarding the Indo-Pacific.

The more things change, the more they seem to stay the same.

His ultimate vision of a new world order might be some combination of power in which the U.S. takes absolute control of the Western sphere of influence and weighs in heavily on global affairs with other great powers.

The world’s future will hinge on a choice between unilateral confrontation, as exemplified by U.S. President Donald Trump; multilateral confrontation, as in America’s alliance with the EU; or multilateral cooperation, as advocated by China. It’s clear which one will be better for mankind.

Trump’s foreign policy moves have been polarizing to say the least - but with competing voices within his own cabinet involved, the strongman approach may not be the ultimate outcome of the early administration’s moves.