ASEAN’s leadership has now been passed onto the Philippines during a time when traditional world powers like the U.S. and China are courting new relationships in rising regions.

Timor-Leste’s accession to ASEAN underscores its expanding but still limited relationship with China, marked by significant infrastructure and trade cooperation alongside ongoing institutional and investment challenges. Deeper and more coordinated Chinese engagement would enable Timor-Leste to play a meaningful role in strengthening Sino-ASEAN cooperation.

Southeast Asia faces a critical challenge in balancing rapid economic growth with climate commitments, as most of its energy demand remains dependent on fossil fuels despite vast renewable potential. China plays a pivotal dual role in this transition, financing both coal and clean energy projects, and its future choices will determine whether ASEAN’s development and decarbonization goals can align.

In times of geopolitical uncertainty, regional unity is the surest path forward. In July, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) released its updated outlook for the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, plus China, Japan, and South Korea. AMRO revised down its growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively, and highlighted the urgent need for greater regional integration.

Donald Trump prefers to treat the waters as a bargaining chip, so the United States may reduce high-profile provocations — such as close-in reconnaissance — and instead increase its “gray” tactics and low-intensity military exercises.

Regional trade alliances and economic integration — especially the one emerging between China, ASEAN and countries in the Persian Gulf — are offering stability for a global economy on the edge. The world’s poles are shifting to fill the gap left by an increasingly isolationist United States.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs – especially the ultra-high “reciprocal tariffs” that he says will be reintroduced on July 8 for any country that has not struck a trade deal with his administration – have sent countries around the world scrambling to respond, adapt, and limit the fallout. ASEAN’s ten members – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam – have been among the most proactive.

After reaching a consensus in their tariff negotiations in Geneva, China and the United States have significantly reduced their duties on each other. This has awakened countries around the world and inspired them to launch a new wave of regional integration.

In the week of 25th May 2025, Kuala Lumpur played host to a landmark event: the inaugural ASEAN-GCC-China Summit. It brought together Southeast Asian nations, the Gulf states, and China - three pillars of the emerging multipolar order - in a signal moment of strategic realignment. While headlines may focus on trade, energy, and infrastructure cooperation, the deeper story lies in a quiet revolution in how the world’s fastest-growing economies trade, settle, and invest - increasingly without the U.S. dollar.

Peter Hegseth’s inability to name an ASEAN country underscores the Trump administration’s broader indifference to Southeast Asia, favoring trade protectionism, military burden-shifting, and transactional diplomacy over sustained regional engagement.