The most recent trade talks between the United States and China in Geneva and London provided little more than temporary relief in the conflict between the world’s two largest economies. Despite US President Donald Trump’s efforts to tout the stopgap measures as a “deal” that benefits America, China reads the scoreboard differently – and believes it is winning. From its vantage point, it has weathered the storm and emerged more confident, more self-reliant, and more convinced that its long game is paying off.

Donald Trump prefers to treat the waters as a bargaining chip, so the United States may reduce high-profile provocations — such as close-in reconnaissance — and instead increase its “gray” tactics and low-intensity military exercises.

Strategic adjustments, characterized by economic decoupling, high-tech restrictions and military posturing in the Indo-Pacific region, will transform the bilateral relationship and the shape of global security itself.

An extreme imbalance of power appears likely to emerge in the future. Donald Trump’s personal attitude will be a critical factor influencing the sensitive political dynamics of the island, and doubts about the reliability of U.S. support will continue to grow.

The genius of China’s approach is that it never triggers a full-scale crisis. It ensures that American companies and politicians exist in a state of perpetual anxiety. Inventories shrink to manage costs and procurement becomes a game of roulette. Meanwhile, Beijing can modulate the pressure.

In this interview, Fudan University’s Professor Wu Xinbo warns that U.S.-China relations have worsened across political, economic, and security fronts since 2019, emphasizing that mutual trust is now near zero and urging a mindset shift toward cooperation in an increasingly interconnected world.

Court rulings could weaken the U.S. administration’s tough stance in trade talks and give trading partners more room to maneuver. But policy uncertainty means that high-stakes trade negotiations could go either way.

There is an inherent flaw in US President Donald Trump’s trade policy. While it is all but impossible to know where Trump will settle on most issues – from taxes to immigration – two key objectives of his trade strategy are now coming into focus: setting a global minimum tariff, and imposing a special penalty on China. The flaw lies in the combination.

America’s reindustrialization process relies heavily on China’s industrial system support. In an increasingly competitive global market, China’s full-fledged industrial system emerges as the most cost-effective and competitive option.

Despite de-escalation in Geneva, trillions of dollars may have been lost in the unwarranted trade wars.