After months of escalating tariffs and retaliatory measures, China and the United States have reached a fragile truce that has begun to stabilize their trade and technology relationship. While tensions over chips, rare earths, and agricultural exports persist, both sides now recognize their mutual vulnerability, creating a cautious but potentially durable détente rooted in economic deterrence rather than dominance.

During the 12th Beijing Xiangshan Forum on Sept. 18-19 at the Beijing International Convention Center, Da Wei, Director of the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) and Professor of International Relations at Tsinghua University, was interviewed by China-US Focus Beijing editor Huang Zhijin. Da Wei believes that in the short term, China-U.S. relations will remain focused on maintaining stability; and as domestic political imperatives and broader global strategic considerations increasingly dominate the policy agenda, the Indo-Pacific strategy under Trump 2.0 appears to be losing substance.

Whether the dream is making America great again or the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, the aspirations of the two countries’ respective peoples for a better life should drive every decision. Neither people will succeed without a sound external environment. Slogans are not enough.

Conventional thinking would assume the Trump administration’s haphazard approach to China will become an articulated stance at some point, but the U.S. president is anything but conventional.

The most recent trade talks between the United States and China in Geneva and London provided little more than temporary relief in the conflict between the world’s two largest economies. Despite US President Donald Trump’s efforts to tout the stopgap measures as a “deal” that benefits America, China reads the scoreboard differently – and believes it is winning. From its vantage point, it has weathered the storm and emerged more confident, more self-reliant, and more convinced that its long game is paying off.

Donald Trump prefers to treat the waters as a bargaining chip, so the United States may reduce high-profile provocations — such as close-in reconnaissance — and instead increase its “gray” tactics and low-intensity military exercises.

Strategic adjustments, characterized by economic decoupling, high-tech restrictions and military posturing in the Indo-Pacific region, will transform the bilateral relationship and the shape of global security itself.

An extreme imbalance of power appears likely to emerge in the future. Donald Trump’s personal attitude will be a critical factor influencing the sensitive political dynamics of the island, and doubts about the reliability of U.S. support will continue to grow.

The genius of China’s approach is that it never triggers a full-scale crisis. It ensures that American companies and politicians exist in a state of perpetual anxiety. Inventories shrink to manage costs and procurement becomes a game of roulette. Meanwhile, Beijing can modulate the pressure.

In this interview, Fudan University’s Professor Wu Xinbo warns that U.S.-China relations have worsened across political, economic, and security fronts since 2019, emphasizing that mutual trust is now near zero and urging a mindset shift toward cooperation in an increasingly interconnected world.