Europe has again gained an advantage in its sustained competition with Russia to influence the United States. While Washington is likely to continue pursuing a calibrated re-engagement with Russia and to further reduce its direct role in European security, the scope for abrupt and highly oscillatory shifts in U.S. policy on Ukraine appears to have narrowed.

(Social media @realDonaldTrump)In May 2024, I penned an article that framed Europe’s existential dilemma starkly: either fade into obscurity as the "conti

Unable to maintain its position of leadership, the United States is severely hindering the progress of other nations. It’s a self-isolating form of hegemony that poses real geopolitical dangers. By openly acknowledging and pursuing exclusive spheres of influence, America is effectively signaling a return to the law of the jungle.

The U.S. operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro demonstrates Washington’s military power and intent to counter rival influence, particularly China, in the Western Hemisphere, but it violates international law and risks destabilizing the region. Such interventions often produce unintended consequences, embolden other powers to challenge norms, and expose smaller states to coercion, highlighting the dangers of unilateral actions under the guise of national or hemispheric security.

The American experiment will foster new realities through a low-cost, efficient model for connection nations. The Zangezur Corridor represents more than a transportation route. It is likely to become a crucial variable shaping the future geopolitical landscape.

In the waning days of 2025, the United States unveiled its National Security Strategy (NSS), a document that reads less like a blueprint for global dominance and more like the confessions of a fading hegemon. Penned in the shadow of economic strains, industrial atrophy, and military overstretch, the NSS trumpets “America First” while subtly shifting the burdens of empire onto allies.

The Trump administration’s 2025 National Security Strategy reframes the U.S.-Europe relationship from a partnership based on law and institutions into one judged through identity, heritage, and demographic loyalty. This “Trump Corollary” marks a decisive break from the post-1949 transatlantic order and deepens the risk of a lasting rift between Europe and the United States.

Europe’s dissatisfaction, anxiety and dependence will continue to shape the next stage of transatlantic relations. The rift may not lead to a break. But it will likely lead to a relationship that becomes ever more transactional, more realist and ultimately more fragile.

The U.S. president has upended the traditional liberal international order, recalibrated relations with allies and is poised to exert a profound influence on the global strategic landscape through transactional alliances.

Only by transcending the “winner-loser” mindset and exploring a binding solution that is fair, enduring and acceptable to all parties can countries finally rebuild a balanced, effective and sustainable European security framework based on the concept of community.