As Philippine President Marcos Jr. embarks on a crucial trip to Washington, uncertainties triggered by U.S. tariffs are unsettling global markets and the trade war with China is squeezing third countries, including many in ASEAN. Lowering tariffs, pursuing investment pledges, and boosting cooperation in sectors such as shipbuilding, semiconductors, and critical minerals are key to rebutting claims that the relation is more arms than butter.

The United States has launched a review of the AUKUS pact—a trilateral security arrangement between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, signed in 2021. Established behind closed doors and announced with little warning, the agreement abruptly terminated a multi-billion-dollar submarine deal between Australia and France, provoking fury in Paris. France branded the move a “stab in the back,” accusing its allies of deceit.

Was the so-called 12-day war a triple victory or a triple defeat? Will Americans tolerate a policy of “Israel first” over “America first”? The answers to these and other key questions will determine whether, and how deeply, the United States could be drawn into the fray again.

The May conflict between India and Pakistan brought Chinese weaponry, particularly the J-10C fighter jet, into the global spotlight, as Pakistan used Chinese arms to shoot down Indian aircraft in a rare, real-world test of their battlefield effectiveness. This unexpected validation has boosted Chinese arms sales, strengthened China's defense ties with countries like Pakistan and Indonesia, and expanded Beijing’s geopolitical influence in South Asia at the expense of declining Western engagement.

Many in the West think Sino-Russian ties are the key to a resolution of the conflict. But this is a significant strategic misjudgment. Any durable peace in Ukraine must be found through negotiations between the parties directly involved.

South Korean diplomacy needs to strike a balance between two sets of trilateral relationships — ROK-U.S.-Japan and ROK-China-Japan. It all boils down to pragmatism in domestic and international affairs.

The future of the Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy remains fluid. However, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s two visits to the region, including his recent attendance and speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue, shed a little light.

By drawing a parallel between U.S. interest in Greenland and its stance on Taiwan, China has mounted a carefully calibrated rhetorical response that highlights perceived inconsistencies in American positions on sovereignty, positions itself as a defender of international norms, and gently tests the cohesion of Western alliances.

2025 has brought swift changes across the Indo-Pacific, and the Philippines’ growing involvement with Trump’s policies and the Taiwan question could prove to be one of the most pivotal factors in the future of the region.

The U.S. president’s mid-may trip Middle East found a region unlike the one he tamed in his first term. His encore performance, though bold, reveals a region slipping from the grasp of his once-potent diplomatic playbook. GCC states are increasingly asserting themselves as they look for harmony.