The second Trump administration has combined aggressive diplomatic engagement with a confrontational trade policy that alienates allies and risks triggering a global recession, despite legitimate concerns about America’s industrial decline. While Trump's trade agenda aims to restructure global commerce to favor U.S. interests, its unilateral execution and failure to build a coalition undermine its effectiveness and may isolate the U.S. rather than restore its manufacturing strength.

The second Trump administration’s trade policies and assertive defense diplomacy have unsettled key Asian allies, straining some relationships while drawing others into deeper military cooperation. This approach has raised concerns about diminishing strategic autonomy among U.S. partners and the potential for pushing them closer to China.

In the post-World War II period, the US maintained nearly uncontested supremacy over the vast Asia-Pacific region. Under the San Francisco System, or the ‘Hub and Spokes’ architecture, the US established military alliances, provided economic assistance, and proactively engaged with the region. The strategic foundation of US policy relied on both bilateral and multilateral defense agreements, such as those with Japan (1951), South Korea (1953), the Philippines (1951), Australia, New Zealand (collectively known as ANZUS, 1951), and Thailand (1954).

The results of the election in Japan’s House of Councillors highlight a key trend: An era of political fragmentation in Japanese party politics has arrived, and populist political forces are growing.

At the 25th China-EU Summit in Beijing, Chinese and European leaders acknowledged both overlapping interests and deep divergences, especially over China’s seeming alignment with Russia and the Ukraine war. While Beijing seeks improved economic ties with Europe, it continues to prioritize geopolitical security and its strategic rivalry with the U.S. over European concerns, limiting the prospects for major diplomatic improvements.

In his meetings with US President Donald Trump in Washington this week, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., is navigating a challenging new reality: a place under America’s security umbrella no longer comes with a discount at the customs window. When it comes to trade, Trump throws allies and adversaries into the same basket. But Marcos thinks he can negotiate an agreement that preserves and even strengthens the US-Philippines trade relationship.

As Philippine President Marcos Jr. embarks on a crucial trip to Washington, uncertainties triggered by U.S. tariffs are unsettling global markets and the trade war with China is squeezing third countries, including many in ASEAN. Lowering tariffs, pursuing investment pledges, and boosting cooperation in sectors such as shipbuilding, semiconductors, and critical minerals are key to rebutting claims that the relation is more arms than butter.

The United States has launched a review of the AUKUS pact—a trilateral security arrangement between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, signed in 2021. Established behind closed doors and announced with little warning, the agreement abruptly terminated a multi-billion-dollar submarine deal between Australia and France, provoking fury in Paris. France branded the move a “stab in the back,” accusing its allies of deceit.

Was the so-called 12-day war a triple victory or a triple defeat? Will Americans tolerate a policy of “Israel first” over “America first”? The answers to these and other key questions will determine whether, and how deeply, the United States could be drawn into the fray again.

The May conflict between India and Pakistan brought Chinese weaponry, particularly the J-10C fighter jet, into the global spotlight, as Pakistan used Chinese arms to shoot down Indian aircraft in a rare, real-world test of their battlefield effectiveness. This unexpected validation has boosted Chinese arms sales, strengthened China's defense ties with countries like Pakistan and Indonesia, and expanded Beijing’s geopolitical influence in South Asia at the expense of declining Western engagement.