The visit of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to the United States showcased the internal solidarity of the alliance. But an official U.S. report warned Tokyo against escalating tensions with China.

It’s no secret that the relationship between Asia’s two largest states is far from friendly, but the present window of opportunity for new global leaders to take center-stage could turn things around if both play to their strengths.

The U.S.-Israel war with Iran is exposing widening reluctance among American allies to support the conflict, signaling potential erosion in U.S. global influence. At the same time, moves to bypass the U.S. dollar in oil trade, amid growing Chinese involvement, could challenge the petrodollar and reshape the global energy order.

While leaning toward the United States, President Javier Milei has been adjusting ties with China. Given the U.S. strategic narrative of “Western Hemisphere First,” his approach to balancing relations with Beijing and Washington may serve as a bellwether for the foreign policy strategies of other countries across the region.

Each has three core national objectives that are internally contradictory. Any two can be pursued simultaneously, but never all three. Until these triangles are broken, there will be no lasting peace in the Middle East—only the same fire burning in different forms.

The security foundation on which the GCC’s economic model was built has been seriously undermined. Unless these nations can forge a new, credible framework, it will be difficult to sustain the foreign investment and confidence that have fueled their growth.

The war against Iran is not going well for Israel, which is being bombarded daily, nor is it going well for the US, which has seen its military bases and strategic facilities in the region attacked and degraded by Iranian drones and missiles. Of course, Iran suffers most of all, but it has shown a remarkable capacity to fight a war of attrition, despite the dreadful daily onslaught from the skies. Its reconstituted leadership has shown not a hint of the “unconditional surrender” that Trump is demanding.

Whether assessing the prospects of the war in Ukraine or predicting the trajectory of relations between the United States and Russia, U.S. policy discussions have generally revealed a cautious, realistic tone: The war is unlikely to end quickly, and the rupture in the international order is widening.

The U.S.-Israel strike on Iran lacks a clear legal basis or credible justification and represents a high-risk gamble by the Trump administration. Despite early military success, the operation faces uncertain prospects, including limited chances of regime change and the risk of prolonged conflict.

The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli strikes has created leadership uncertainty in Tehran, weakened Iran’s regional network of allies, and accelerated shifts in Middle Eastern power dynamics. For China, the conflict threatens energy supplies and Belt and Road investments while potentially expanding Beijing’s diplomatic role if it maintains neutrality and engagement with all sides.