China is stuck between a rock and a hard place on North Korea, but any change in the country’s policy towards North Korea would require a fundamental change in China’s cost-benefit analysis of the current situation. More provocations by North Korea won’t change China’s policy, unless they are bound to lead to a war. Without understanding this crucial point, the world will continue to be disappointed by the insufficiency of the Chinese response.

Key stakeholders in the North Korean issue need to recognize that Pyongyang is and will remain a nuclear power. Negotiations can proceed from that basis.

As the US policy strategy has failed in the Korean Peninsula, ominous scenarios cast a shadow over the region - and the chance for peace.

The US is spending naval resources it can ill-afford patrolling the Western Pacific. These patrols serve no useful purpose and only raise the risk of conflict with the Chinese Navy.

What you need to know about the Code of Conduct for the South China Sea.

The U.S. may be the strongest state militarily, but it needs regional players like China, Iran, Russia and Pakistan to make success of its policy choices on Afghanistan. Operationally it needs to rely on Pakistani ports and road networks to resupply American troops in Afghanistan.

China tactically retreated in Doklam because, beyond declaring war on India, it was running out of options. But without the distraction of a looming party congress, China could seek revenge for Doklam at a time and place of its choosing. Next time, the PLA is unlikely to make the mistake of encroaching onto an area where India enjoys the military advantage.

It’s important to be clear about what the U.S. and China’s new communication framework isn’t – it isn’t a crisis resolution mechanism, something that nominally already exists. Rather, the framework will set up a dialogue between the two countries’ joint military staffs to complement existing bilateral dialogues. What this dynamic suggests is that it is the United States, as the initiator of these measures, is the country most concerned about “miscalculation” or crisis escalation.

Trump imagines that he can use trade threats against China as “bargaining chips” to secure its help in dealing with North Korea. If so, he is on the wrong track. The U.S. and South Korea should be prepared to pause the deployment of THAAD (the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system) as a short-term gesture in return for China enacting and enforcing full sanctions.

Beijing has struggled to hide signs of an about-face in sentiment towards North Korea following claims of a successful Hydrogen bomb test on last Sunday.